Every year I see at least half of the coaches in my leagues recruiting players that I do my best to avoid. These are players with a questionable history of performance, league scoring format, injury history, and off-season team changes. While I love the research that most fantasy sports sites provide, it’s easy to see managers who do little to no other research or just don’t know much about the game. Now, I want to keep this as short and simple as possible, but I couldn’t do it. So, I’ve broken down the top topics that I think are the most important to research to gain an edge over at least 50% of your competing managers.
1. SCORING SYSTEM Before you select, go to the scoring system and free agent pool (which should include all players since it’s pre-draft). If you’re in a points league, sort all players by total fantasy points. Don’t worry about position or any other subcategories. It is necessary to separate the real sports world and the fantasy sports world. Tom Brady may be the best NFL player in real life, but he’s far from the best in the fantasy world. The point (yes, pun intended) is to have the most points at the end of the year. Early in the draft, say the first 3-5 rounds, this factor (higher points overall) should weigh heavily in your decision-making process. You need to focus on which positions and players historically give you the most points. Just because a player is the best at his position doesn’t mean you should rush in and recruit him. For example, the 15th best running back will probably earn you more points than the 1st or 2nd tight end. I always cringe when I see Joe Mauer or another receiver get off the board early. Receivers are almost always drafted too early in the leagues. I’m saving the receiver for the last pick in the draft. You always overpay and the return is much lower than any other position at that point in the draft.
In head-to-head leagues, you will be able to rank most players based on the criteria on that website. So after ranking players (#1) as the best player overall, you’ll start to see which positions have the deepest pool of talent, which positions will build your team in the most categories, and what you need to focus on . . Make a checklist or mental notes of the deepest positions and the most superficial positions. Also, watch to see what positions the highest ranked players have. After a bit of analysis, you’ll see where you can wait longer to draft a position and which positions need attention earlier in the draft.
At this point, I want to re-emphasize that you should always focus on getting the best available player in the first 3-5 rounds, as long as you have an open spot to put him (ie not on the bench). because you don’t have a place on the active list to give them). I usually let these first few rounds determine the direction of the rest of my draft. Find the strengths and weaknesses of your team. DO NOT BUILD A BALANCED TEAM. Balanced teams are mediocre. You need to be strong in a fixed number of categories. If you drafted a group of players who hit .300, averaged 25-30 stolen bases, and scored 90-100 runs, don’t start drafting some of the remaining high-power players. Keep filling positions with similar players.
2. INJURIES Now, let’s take a look at injuries. I always avoid players who have multiple trips to the disabled list in the last 2-3 years. This requires a bit of research if you’re not familiar with the sport and don’t follow current events. After you’ve gone to the trouble of identifying the players you’d consider drafting, start going through their profiles and see how many games they’ve missed in recent years. This isn’t a foolproof method and doesn’t mean they’re safely headed to the DL in the future, but I usually avoid them like the plague unless I can get them much later than they normally would.
Players that fall into this category for me are Josh Hamilton, Troy Tulowitzki, Donovan McNabb, Ronnie Brown, etc. Yes, they can have a high side and usually play at a high level when healthy, but they are also frustrating to own and can cripple your team. It’s usually not a huge number of players, but the goal is to have these guys all year long, not part of it.
3. PROGRESSION Next, we will look at a player’s performance history. Typically, many fantasy baseball sleeper rosters will tell you which rookies will make a big impact this year. Rarely do I find that rookies have a significant part of my team’s success. With baseball, I prefer to look at young players who have a year or two in the league and maybe were on a sleeper roster a year or two earlier. This is where your research will really pay off, as this type of research applies to all rounds of a comp.
Progress is simply an improvement over a period of time. I like to see improvements over the course of a couple of years. For example, for my 2011 baseball drafts, I was really into Jered Weaver. In fact, I kept stating that I think he will be a Cy Young finalist this year. I shouldn’t have opened my mouth when he drafted it right in front of me in a draft that we shared shortly after making this proclamation. Still, if you look at Jered Weaver’s profile, you’ll see how the general trend shows a good number of innings pitched, a steady improvement in ERA and an increase in strikeouts. In my opinion, Yahoo Sports had him very undervalued, so I was able to recruit him in three other leagues. He has started the year as the best pitcher in the league. There’s a lot of season left, but I’d say things are looking good for that prediction.
Another example from baseball is with Trevor Cahill. He’s a late-round pick, but someone who is developing and will be a dominant pitcher for years to come.
Baseball-reference.com is a fantastic website to look up minor league statistics. After seeing the success he had in the minors and how he had performed in his brief major league career, he sold me. He dominated the minors and translated to the majors. His strikeouts were low, but they usually come back after a year or two in the league. So far this year, he’s been very off, his K’s are up and his ERA is close to the best in the league.
4. OUT OF SEASONAL STATUS: This last point of consideration should not be overlooked. A player’s value can change if he moves ball parks or if his team added a few extra free agents to their squad. I’ll use baseball as an example again since it’s the time of year we’re in. Adrian Gonzalez played in one of the worst hitter’s parks in the league at Safeco. It was amazing the power he displayed considering the handicap he had by spending half the year there. Moving to Fenway, where it’s a very friendly hitter’s park, especially for lefties, will have a positive impact on his numbers. So far this year, I’ll be honest, it hasn’t been shown. However, by the end of the year, it will make fantasy owners (like me) very happy they picked it up.
The same can happen with a pitcher who has changed leagues, teams or stadiums. Coors field is known for being a hitter’s park and until last year’s Ubaldo Jimenez anomaly, it was known to gobble up pitchers. The American League is known for being the toughest league for pitchers. This is mainly due to the designated hitter rule that the American League has and the National League does not. This should and does weigh into the equation of who to pick. Your NL pitchers will have a better time. Here’s an easy example. We all know that Roy Halladay is one of the best pitchers in the league. However, he only got better when he traded to the National League from the American League. His ERA, WHIP, SO’s, W’s, were the best or second best of his entire career except year, his first year in the National League. Neither is he entering his prime as he is 33 years old and will be 34 next month.
In conclusion, to have a successful fantasy team, you must follow these steps. They will go a long way in making him one of the best in his leagues, year after year. I’ll be writing an entire novel on the art of the fantasy project shortly, but until then, this “brief” explanation will have to suffice. And hey, if you have any questions about who to pick, who to pick, who to leave, send me a message. I am always researching.