We just started the preseason and betting angles and trends are already coming out. Granted, preseason football doesn’t mean much to teams, especially the first week. The starters hardly play and the key is to evaluate the boys and avoid injuries. However, from a betting standpoint, there is a lot more going on for the trained eye.
On the one hand, there have not been many goals. This is common, since game plans are basic. Even Detroit with new offensive coordinator Mad Mike Martz didn’t play flamboyantly on offense. Martz admitted he wasn’t going to show much in the first exhibition game against Denver on Friday. And they didn’t, with 20 points on less than 130 passing yards. When he was coaching the Rams, 130 passing yards might be a good quarter! But not in preseason.
Note that games have gone 11-4-1 under total. It’s a combination of good defense plus conservative plays that gets the point guard moving at high speed. The Carolina/Buffalo game was typical of preseason. Carolina made it 14-0, at home, in the first quarter, with the headlines putting on a show for the home fans (who are paying full price for tickets). After that, they did not dial again.
Carolina’s reserves did not fare well, as Casey Cramer and Efrem Hill lost fumbles. Buffalo’s quarterback problems didn’t seem any closer to a resolution. Quarterbacks Kelly Holcomb and JP Losman battled for the Bills.
Another thing that stands out is that the home team is 11-5 in a row. The past two NFL Week 1 preseasons, the home team is 18-13-1 against the spread. Yes, there’s no place like home, Dorothy. This is also not a surprise, since preseason games mean so little, it’s not surprising that a small home advantage can tip the ATS scales in a club’s favor. After all, fans are paying big bucks to watch teams in preseason. And with the NFL so popular and only once a week, teams are getting huge crowds for games. It is no surprise to see the players and coaches delighted to put in a little extra effort and so far they are playing well at home.
There are plenty of new head coaches, too, and another angle to keep up with is that new home or neutral-site head coaches are 4-1 outright and 3-2 against the spread. Yes, the new coaches want to impress the local fans and the management that hired them, as if to show that they are the right man for the job. New coach Art Shell won the Hall of Fame game, new Rams coach (Scott Linehan) beat Indy (although they couldn’t cover), new Houston coach defeated the disinterested Chiefs, 24-14 , and new Lions coach Rod Marinelli beat Denver as the home dog, 20-13. Do you think Detroit fans are sick of losing? Even a pre-season game suddenly has some meaning, which is important to keep in mind when betting.
This is nothing new. Last season in August, new head coaches Romeo Crennel (Cleveland) and Mike Nolan (San Francisco) went 7-1 against the spread in the preseason. “Hey, when you win just two games and go through what we did last season, you feel good about a win, any win,” Houston cornerback Dunta Robinson said this weekend. New Houston coach Gary Kubiak added: “I was more nervous Thursday and Friday than I am today. I think the coaches needed this game more than anyone.” Interesting, right? The game is pointless in ranking and in the grand scheme of things. But after a 2-14 season and the arrival of a new manager, you get the feeling that the new manager REALLY wanted a strong performance and a win. Be aware of the new coaches and when they will play at home this August. There are betting advantages to be found, you just have to know what to look for. Good luck as always… To McMordie