We make decisions all day…every day…until our last day. At this time, you decided to read this award. You could have chosen to slam your computer shut, jump on a cross-country train, and join a traveling carnival. Here you are again. Will you read this sentence?
We are the product of our decisions. There is no simpler way to describe where we are in life, both physically and metaphysically. Given the amount of practice we’ve got making decisions, you’d think we’d be pretty good at it. If instead of making decisions all day, you juggled all day, you would eventually be a world-class juggler. But are you a world class decision maker? What is a world class decision maker?
Our society looks at the results and generally ignores the process.
Consider a game of blackjack (Twenty-One). You are dealt a King and a Queen (20). The dealer has a Jack showing. What is the correct decision? Suppose you choose to “hit” and are dealt an ace (21). The dealer had a Queen under that Jack (20). You win! But did you make the right decision?
Does the thought process you use to answer this question matter? If asked, “Why did you choose to take another card?” Consider the following two responses:
- I was counting cards. Based on the cards left undealt, I had a 34% chance of drawing an Ace and the dealer had a 70% chance of drawing a Ten, Face Card, or Ace. Holding gave me a 30% chance of winning, hitting gave me a 34% chance of winning. I choose the option with the highest percentage.
- I don’t know. I just felt confident that I was going to get an Ace.
Let’s face it, we know people who live their lives using the logic of Answer #2 and some always seem to come out on top. We also know people who use the logic in Answer #1 and some always seem to fall short.
Suppose your organization is on the verge of a massive project. The results will impact the future of your organization for decades. You should select the project manager and have two options: Jim or Lisa. Jim’s last two projects were huge successes (under budget and ahead of schedule), but he’s an Answer #2 person, through and through. Lisa’s last two projects were lousy (way over budget and behind schedule), but she has an extraordinarily gifted mind as Answer #1. Lisa’s leadership, communication, and organizational skills are far superior to Jim’s. Who do you choose to lead the project?
There are more variables to consider and real life is always more nuanced than a what-if scenario in a blog post, but most organizations have a mindset that would lead them to select Jim. “He must be doing something right. Look at his results!”
I’m about to oversimplify the scenario, but I’m confident the resulting point will resonate.
Isn’t this situation a lot like gambling on the roll of the dice? So far, he has made four bets:
Bet on 2 (snake eyes – “Jim”) – you won
Bet on 7 (best odds – “Lisa”) – lost
Bet on 2 (snake eyes) – you won
Bet on 7 (best odds) – lost
Now, now you have to bet a fifth time and the stakes are higher. You can only select 2 or 7, which one do you select?
I have oversimplified the discussion. There are a plethora of real-world decisions and actions we could take to increase the likelihood of project success. For example, you’ll probably want to know why Lisa’s projects were disastrous and why Jim’s were successful. However, few would argue that organizations often place an undue emphasis on past results when making decisions.
There are several reasons why organizational leaders make this “mistake” and several actions they can take to increase their decision-making skills as they strive for results-oriented behavior.
Let’s start with the “why”. Consider the following three human weaknesses.
- We draw conclusions based on patterns derived from insufficient data. I will use my own weaknesses to highlight this example. I wrote an article hoping it would get published. After the third rejection letter, my instinct was to conclude that the article wasn’t good enough. Conservatively, there are 200 publications to which you could provide this article for publication consideration. Is my conclusion rational? Of course not. Note that my conclusion is not necessarily wrong, but it is not rational because I don’t have enough data to support my conclusion.
- We see what we expect to see. Worse yet, sometimes we see what we want to see. Suppose he hired two different consultants who specialize in operational excellence. Both consultants have excellent reputations and exceptional pedigrees. However, suppose he told each consultant a different story. With the first consultant, he shares her concerns that his corporate culture is badly damaged. To the second consultant, he shares that he believes his corporate culture is as strong as ever, but he worries about how to maintain that strong culture. You provide each consultant with the same information with the same access to the company. Request a report from everyone on the health of the company’s Operational Excellence culture. How do you think those reports will be different?
- We are afraid of being wrong and alone. That is why financial bubbles are created. There is a saying about decision makers that is absolutely true and also impossible. “Most decision makers will wait for most decision makers to do something before they do it.” Before the financial disaster of 2009, there was ample information available to conclude that the real estate market had gotten out of hand. However, the world’s “wisest” investors continued to invest in residential real estate. Because? Presumably, because most of the other “wiser” investors continued to do so as well. We are likely to value the opinions of others above logic and reason.
Fortunately, we can overcome these weaknesses. Well, we can probably never “get over” them because we are, like it or not, fallible human beings. However, you cannot fight an invisible enemy. Identifying our innate weaknesses in decision making is the first step to overcoming them.
download my mini-eBook, “How to Make Better Decisions in Three Steps” for some additional ideas on how to strengthen your decision-making skills at https://forms.aweber.com/form/56/1109658656.htm