The 2006 San Jose State Spartans have been to the top of the mountain. Projected by the WAC media poll to finish last in the conference, the Spartans have trailed former University of Arizona principal Dick Tomey to his best record since 2000. (Since 1992, the win-loss record on the show is 45-102, a solid 31% winning clip.) San Jose St. is 7-4 overall, 4-3 in the highly competitive WAC, beat Stanford, lost by six to Washington and lost by three off Boise St. bound for BCS. Because they were able to win their seventh game last week against Idaho, this December, the Spartans will be invited to a bowl game for the first time in 16 years: the New Mexico Bowl, where they will play, er, New Mexico.
Perfect setting for a disappointment, right? Watch highlights of your bowl win on the plane home from Moscow (the Idaho kind, not the Russian one), dream about all the free stuff you’ll get in Albuquerque a couple days before Christmas, fatten up and happy and ignore the season finale.
Bad luck. San Jose St. hosts Fresno St. in their final game of the 2006 regular season, and they have revenge on their minds. These teams have played every year since 1996 and the Bulldogs have won every game. Oh. And that includes some massive blowouts: Last year, Fresno St. won 45-7; in 2004 it was 62-28; in 2003 it was 41-7, and so on. The Spartans haven’t won against the Bulldogs since 1990.
This year, the Bulldogs are one season away from a breakout campaign, in which they nearly beat USC and beat Boise St., and were projected to contend for the league crown one more time in 2006. That hasn’t happened; the Bulldogs are 4-7 overall and 4-3 in the conference. They lost inexplicable games at Utah St. and Colorado St., and punters have consistently overrated them all year: They’re 3-13 against the spread in their last 16 games (tracing back to a four-game losing streak that ended ‘ 05), 1-8 ATS in his last nine conference games, 1-11 ATS in his last 12 games on grass, 0-8 ATS against teams with winning records and 0-6 ATS on the road. Coach Pat Hill has gone back and forth with his quarterback, starting with Tom Brandstater, benching him and going with Sean Norton, then back to Brandstater. Running back Dwayne Wright has been very good, averaging 123 yards per game (including the 295 he had last week against Louisiana Tech), and the Bulldogs have won three in a row (although they only covered in one of those games). But his seven-game losing streak earlier in the season was the worst in 77 years.
The Spartans, by contrast, have been very good in every game except against Hawaii’s dominant offense (they allowed 54 points to the Rainbows on the road; then, against, the Bulldogs gave up 68 to Hawaii at home) and the strong Nevada defense. SJSU junior cornerback Dwight Lowery is a first-team All-American and will be the best player on the field on Saturday afternoon (it’s the first time in 35 years that San Jose St. has an All-American football player). American). On offense, the Spartans have a running game almost equal to that of Fresno St., behind RB Yonus Davis and Patrick Perry, and quarterback Adam Tafralis is good enough to take advantage of the Bulldogs’ pass defense. , who is 89th-best in the nation in terms of passing yards allowed per game, and has allowed 23 touchdowns to just four interceptions. And while these two defenses can be had on the ground, and while SJSU’s average rushing yards allowed per game is worse (150 to 137), these teams are evenly matched in rushing yards allowed, at 4.1 ypc allowed.
Having surprised the gaming public this year with a successful year well ahead of expectations, SJSU is also pretty good against numbers. They are 7-3 against the spread this year, and on a 4-1 ATS streak; they are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 as favorites; they are 4-1 ATS against conference teams; and they are 4-1 ATS in home games. Tomey was part of the Rose Bowl-winning staff at the University of Texas in 2004, and was recognized for his Desert Swarm defenses at Arizona in the 1990s. His staff at SJSU certainly doesn’t come close to that quality yet, but the team is Driven, he looks no further than Fresno St. to the excitement of a bowling game, and has cherished the memory of recent blowouts at the hands of the Bulldogs. new. I will take San Jose St. home over Fresno St. (-4) in a game of revenge at the highest level.
Last week: Ohio University got us right the second time around, as a three-point favorite against archrival Miami of Ohio. The game was nail-biting when Miami tied the score, 24-24, early in the fourth quarter, but the Bobcats responded with a five-play, 73-yard drive and settled the deal with a fair field goal. four minutes later, for a 34-24 win. No sweatshirt. (Of course). That squares Ohio with us, as we lost a one-point heartthrob to them earlier this year. For the season, our record is 8-5 against the number.